Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 4.756745 5.593729 6.519306 7.616597 8.879695 10.285750 11.967120
2025-07-27 3.588434 4.746026 6.164465 8.019864 10.371078 13.238515 16.986066
2025-08-03 2.723815 3.986206 5.674342 8.072121 11.360669 15.678531 21.735803
2025-08-10 2.055924 3.293065 5.080203 7.807283 11.809843 17.403688 25.729079
2025-08-17 1.563615 2.720315 4.512444 7.428462 11.972600 18.679039 29.183643
2025-08-24 1.262019 2.365654 4.186136 7.321363 12.469885 20.435137 33.470282
2025-08-31 1.040075 2.089896 3.924832 7.253392 12.984809 22.234756 37.973999
2025-09-07 0.920419 1.967525 3.893834 7.550742 14.112041 25.093757 44.412772
2025-09-14 0.789203 1.793485 3.736254 7.591379 14.788610 27.262092 49.912778
2025-09-21 0.679641 1.638307 3.584210 7.611260 15.415911 29.390188 55.525471
2025-09-28 0.588241 1.501230 3.442098 7.622916 16.017414 31.515384 61.310342
2025-10-05 0.567690 1.517985 3.615524 8.282348 17.922353 36.159801 71.996663
2025-10-12 0.513565 1.447717 3.598659 8.560429 19.137774 39.695665 81.075498
2025-10-19 0.468997 1.391912 3.605818 8.893542 20.510412 43.675145 91.375432
2025-10-26 0.409987 1.285270 3.477810 8.909206 21.222528 46.437881 99.595483
2025-11-02 0.342496 1.138675 3.227233 8.604765 21.205120 47.735349 105.048631
2025-11-09 0.280850 0.992070 2.948017 8.185688 20.874036 48.344779 109.155846
2025-11-16 0.241957 0.903263 2.801418 8.066863 21.207609 50.370872 116.336434
2025-11-23 0.210420 0.829082 2.680029 7.991958 21.631543 52.623863 124.175592
2025-11-30 0.196406 0.809724 2.709280 8.316472 23.056226 57.202758 137.366891
2025-12-07 0.175261 0.759567 2.639232 8.360757 23.788907 60.284865 147.521655
2025-12-14 0.156100 0.711149 2.565208 8.382432 24.465543 63.295615 157.753793
2025-12-21 0.139065 0.665801 2.492022 8.395148 25.119440 66.308249 168.224014